August 3 2005

The Football League

So we are back in the division, which is the hardest to get out of, but the easiest to fall into. The name may have been changed but the long haul back to the Premiership starts here! SIMON Pophale rates the Championship teams...

Watford

Last Season: 18th

In: (all transfers are free unless specified) Jordan Stewart (£125,000 – Leicester),Adam Griffiths (KV Oostende), Junior (Derby) Junior Osborne, Martin Devaney, Ben Foster (Man Utd – loan)

Out: Brynar Gunnarson (Reading – undisc), Danny Webber (Sheffield Utd £500,000), Heidar Helguson (Fulham £1,100,000), Jack Smith (Swindon), Omari Coleman & Paul Mayo (Lincoln), Neil Cox and Jermaine Darlington (Cardiff), Ben Herd (Shrewsbury), Andy Ferrell, Jason Norville, Bruce Dyer (Stoke)

Manager: Adrian Bothroyd

One to watch:

My Prediction: 24th - Relegated

How will we do? – 6/6

Watford are a shadow of their former selves. Indeed, last season they were no great shakes either, after their defeat to Liverpool in the Carling Cup.

This loss of form in the league led to Ray Lewington losing his job and Adrian Bothroyd inheriting a squad which had some players that have been around this division for a while, also having some class in its ranks which is what got Watford to their Carling Cup semi-final in the first place.

But it has been an unhappy close season with many of the players who could have led Watford to safety, have now moved on. I can’t see where the goals are going to come from, as Webber and Helguson scored nearly 40 goals between them last season. With them, Watford struggled, without them – it will mean certain relegation for the Hornets.

Even without their key front men, long standing campaigners at this level such as Bruce Dyer, Jermaine Darlington and Neil Cox have also left, leaving a real threadbare look about Bothroyds squad. While no one had even heard of Bothroyd before his appointment, it does not mean that he is not up to the job.

However since his appointment, he has hardly shown that he can get the best out of the players he has. Last season the players were of a higher quality than now, so I cannot see him working a Dowie-like miracle. You have to have quality, plus the want to work hard and Watford don’t have the former.

Players have come in, but I cannot see any of them really keeping Watford in the division. My one to watch is, but even then, he is a standout player in very poor squad. Watford have had their financial problems and this has clearly been shown in their comings and goings in the close season.

With a rookie manager at the helm, it is going to be a long season of struggle. I can see us doing well in both games and I don’t expect any of their players giving us any problems.

We will need to be in the right frame of mind and not take them lightly, but the only way Watford are leaving this division is to League One. A sad end for this once proud club, especially after scaling the heights of Carling Cup success last season.

Millwall

Last Season: 10th

In: Sammy Igoe (Swindon)

Out: Darren Ward (Crystal Palace £1,100,000), Paul Ifill (Sheff. Utd £800,000), Peter Sweeney (Stoke – tribunal), Dennis Wise (Southampton), Danny Dichio (Preston £160,000), Joe Dolan (Leyton Orient)

Manager: Colin Lee

One to watch: Barry Hayles

My Prediction: 23rd - Relegated

How will we do? – 6/6

It has all been one-way traffic for Millwall this close season and hardly any of it has been coming in to the New Den. First, Dennis Wise leaves as manager, then Ray Wilkins comes in as caretaker until the new man is found.

Theo Paphitis, then steps down and hands the club over to Jeff Burnige, whose first task is to install a new manager. Step in, Steve Claridge. 36 days later, it was a case of step out, Steve Claridge and hello – Colin Lee. Preseason must have been a mish-mash of different people and different ideas, so it cannot have been smooth.

This was just what was going on at the top of the club, on the playing side, it was just as eventful. Sadly for Lions fans, it was all in the same direction – outwards. Darren Ward, Paul Ifill, Danny Dichio all went for around £2 million, while Peter Sweeney still must wait for a tribunal to decide his fee on moving to Stoke.

With the backbone of the team gone, it will be hard for Colin Lee or any manager in fact, to try to piece together a working first 11, in time for the opening match, just days away now.

Still, Millwall have the evergreen Barry Hayles and Dave Livermore is still there, a relic of times before that carried players such as Tim Cahill and Lucas Neill amongst others. Neil Harris has long since departed and when you look at Millwalls forward line, you wonder where else the goals are going to come from.

Hayles in his Fulham days, was a 20 goal a season striker, but now? He may struggle as the midfield also looks weak and it will struggle to cope with even sides towards the foot of the table. The new sides of Sheffield Wednesday, Hull City and Luton Town all look like more organised and cohesive units, so it could be a long hard season for Wall.

Hayles is still my man to watch, simply as there is not much else in the side that has the guaranteed Championship quality. He is 32 now and will need to inspire those around him, such as Jody Morris, Matt Lawrence and Marvin Elliott, who is a quality player.

But even with players like these in the first 11, I can’t see a happy future for Millwall. Elliott may not be able to do it all on his own and Andy Marshall is a competent.keeper but I think that Millwall have sold a few players too many and with little time for Lee to bring in new faces, Sammy Igoe being the only incoming player over the close season, I think that Millwall will succumb to the drop by virtue of just not being good enough.

Brighton

Last Season: 20th

In: Jason Dodd (Southampton), Colin Kazim-Richards (Bury), Chris Breach, Gary Elphick, Frederico Turienzo

Out: Nathan Jones, Paul Watson, Dan Harding (Leeds £850,000), Adam Virgo (Celtic - £1,500,000)

Manager: Mark McGhee

One to watch: Leon Knight

My Prediction: 22nd - Relegated

How will we do? – 6/6

When you win £250,000 on the side of a soft drinks can, which becomes the main part of your transfer budget, times are most certainly hard. Brighton might have been the fortunate winners of this windfall, but it might be the only thing that Brighton win all season.

I am not just saying this as a Palace fan, but Brighton just don’t have what it takes to compete at this level. Their transfers look like those carried out by a League One side and to be honest, they have lost quality in their ranks as well with Adam Virgo and Dan Harding moving on.

Brighton will be looking to get a new stadium before they can seriously progress as a club, playing in any division of the League. The Withdean is a godforsaken place and all Seaweed fans know it. There is a decision to be made in October over their new stadium.

Without this, Brighton can never be considered to be a serious Championship club and they will flirt between League One and the Championship until they do, too good for one league but not for another.

It is testament to Mark McGhee that he has managed to attract some new talent, but it is not proven at this level, except Jason Dodd but he is at the end of this career now.

He might be able to form a good understanding with Guy Butters, while Micheal Kuipers in goal has been around for some time, so he could perform well. He will hope to play better on his next visit to Selhurst than his last, which was the 5-0 hammering in 2002.

Leon Knight will be called upon to score goals again and he may struggle, with the lack of any assistance around him. Frederico Turienzo has been brought in but the Argentine is unproven and may take time to settle.

Gary Hart and Mark McCammon are both going to compete for the striking berth alongside Knight, but neither of them have made great impressions at this level. Failure to score goals at this level is what cost them last season and will do so again.

Especially now that Virgo and Harding have gone,Brighton may find that keeping them out and outscoring teams will also be a problem. If so, then this is a combination which is only going to produce one outcome, relegation back to League One.

I know that it looks like this relegation battle is Palace fans dreams come true, with Millwall and Brighton down there, but again you have to look at the teams that come up and they all have better forward lines. But if you don’t progress, then you start falling back and sadly for Brighton, they will be the final victims of the relegation battle this season.

As far as most people down at Palace are concerned, Brighton may be our closest rivals in terms of historical conflict, but otherwise we are poles apart. As the league table will show come the seasons end.

Luton

Last Season: 1st – League One Champions

In: Markus Heikkenen, Dean Morgan (Reading), Rowan Vine (Portsmouth – undisc), Carlos Edwards (Wrexham)

Out: Alan Neilsen, Ian Hillier, Dave Bayliss, Lee Mansell (Oxford)

Manager: Mike Newell

One to watch: Steve Howard

My Prediction: 21st

How will we do? – 6/6

Welcome back to Luton Town, back in the Championship after a serious sojourn with the lower leagues. Mike Newell has created a side which scores goals and is effective all over the park, tight in defence and creative in midfield and with Steve Howard up front, goals are going to be a premium for the Hatters this term.

This is the Championship after all and the quality bar has been considerably raised from that of League One. Luton made easy work last season of the divison below but may find that this season it will be a lot harder.

But to this end, their job will be a lot easier as they have a natural goalscorer, although it will be interesting to see if he can match the goalscoring prowess of the previous seasons.

Steve Howard scored goals for fun last season and formed a good partnership with Rowan Vine, a loan signing from Portsmouth. Vine has now signed permenantly so Luton should be able to score goals.

With almost 40 goals between them last season, they should be a threat. Something we will have to watch out for at Selhurst this week, as they are our opening fixture and Howard is my man to watch.

Marlon Beresford in goal and the signing of Carlos Edwards, coupled with Kevin Nicholls,Ahmet Brkovic and Russell Perrett, ensure that Luton have a solid backbone to their side. New signing Markus Heikkenen also shows that Luton are intent on staying in this division, the Finnish international should be one of the stars of Lutons’ season.

Newell is trying to raise the quality bar himself as well, as he realises that this will be his toughest task yet.

But I can see Luton staying up, but only just. The main factor will be that they have a goalscorers, while the 3 teams below simply do not. The question is if they can score at a higher standard but I think that Howard will surprise a lot of people this season, similar to the way Andy Johnson kept proving week in, week out that he could cope at a level he has never played at before.

But I think that we have a considerable bonus in playing them 1st. We need to set a standard and it will be a good measure of how we are going to cope this season, by how many we put past Luton. If we fail to win, it would be a major boost for Mike Newell and a major downer for us. We play Luton twice before the year is out and I can see that we can take all 6 points.

Lutons’ task will be trying to beat the teams around them, which I think that they will do. So I am tipping them to make the grade this season. Kenilworth Road has waited a long time for Championship football and their fans will not be disappointed come May.

Burnley

Last Season: 13th

In: Wayne Thomas (Stoke), Gifton Noel-Williams (Stoke), Wade Elliot (Bournemouth), Danny Karbassiyoon (Arsenal)

Out: Jean-Louis Valois, Paul Scott, Lee Roche, Joel Pilkington, John Oster, Matt O’Neill, Mo Camara (Celtic)

Manager: Steve Cotterill

One to watch: Ade Akinbiyi

My Prediction: 20th

How will we do? – 6/6

Last season Burnley did well, despite losing their midfield star Richard Chaplow to West Bromwich Albion. Steve Cotterill has bought well, bringing in players such as Ade Akinbiyi, who previously lost his way with Leicester and ourselves before finding the net while playing for Stoke. He has the potential to be one of the stars of the season, should he start to find the net on a regular basis.

He will be aided by Gifton Noel-Williams who is certainly good enough to play at this level. If these 2 can both contribute goals, then I can see no reason why Burnley will struggle to score goals.

Cotterills main problem will be trying to keep the ball out of their own net. Danny Coyne and Brian Jensen are good keepers, but need a good defence in front of them.

The addition of Wayne Thomas will help here but Burnleys squad is tiny, compared to others in the division and while John McGreal, Frank Sinclair and Graham Branch have been around for some time, they are not superhuman (or spring chickens come to that) and when the injuries and suspensions come calling, then I think that this is when Burnley will struggle.

Danny Karbassiyoon is one of the more interesting signings of the season. The American, released by Arsenal in the summer, showed a lot of promise and indeed scored in the Carling Cup last season. Cotterill may have to rely on him, as he can play in a variety of positions, such as left back, left midfield and even striker.

Possibly one of the biggest losses of the summer was that of Mohammed Camara who has moved on to Celtic and the big rock in defence will be sorely missed. I think this will be the contributing factor to Burnleys final placing, as without him they will struggle to keep hold of a lead or even establish one.

Wade Elliott has been brought in to replace Chaplow but I can’t see the Bournemouth man making the same impact that Chaplow did last season. To that end that while they have Championship quality up front, they have no means to get the ball to them!

It is going to be a season of disappointment for Claret fans and without ever being in danger of being relegated, they may flirt with the drop zone from around January onwards, unless they can find some more players or bring on some youth to pep up, what is barely a first team 16.

Which is why we will be able to win both matches.,we have the defence to stop Akinbiyi and Noel-Williams and the matches will be won in midfield. It will be not because of a lack of quality, but a lack of personnel that will be their undoing.

Coventry

Last Season: 19th

In: Matt Heath (Leicester £25,000), Clayton Ince (Coventry), James Scowcroft (Leicester), Richard Duffy (Portsmouth – loan)

Out: Scott Shearer (Bristol Rovers), Trevor Benjamin (Peterborough), Sean ****ey, Andy Hall, Liam Nicell, Craig Pead, Kevin Pressman, Steve Staunton

Manager: Micky Adams

One to watch: Claus Jorgensen

My Prediction: 19th

How will we do? – 6/6

A new home for the Sky Blues this season, after moving from Highfield Road. Micky Adams will have to get his team firing from day one, if they are going to improve on last season.

Looking at the Coventry squad, there are lots of attacking options. Stern John, who scored goals for Nottingham Forest and Birmingham at this level, is a proven striker, while Graham Barrett and Gary McSheffrey know how to do damage also.

Dele Adebola is still there, so there is a chance for the ex-player curse to rear its head again. Richard Shaw, still knocking around after now, what will be 10 years at Coventry when he completes this season, is another ex-player who will want to do well, although he is used more sparingly these days.

So with all this attacking flair, why is my prediction for Coventry so low? Well in fact it is no lower than they did last season, when they escaped relegation by just 2 points. But you can only play a certain amount of forwards at any one time. Adams went back to Leicester to pick up James Scowcroft on a free and he is yet another striker who could do well.

Scowcroft was most certainly out of sorts at Leicester and will be anxious to get his career restarted. But only 2 or 3 forwards will start at any one time, leaving the midfield to create the opportunites people like John and McSheffrey can capitalise on.

Which brings me to my star turn in this Coventry line up and the talented Dane Claus Jorgensen will shine in the midfield. He is quick, has an eye for goal and can play a pinpoint pass to feet from distance.

However while he is technically gifted, his lack of support in the midfield from those around him will be a factor and Micheal Doyle and Stephen Hughes are good players, but after that Coventry really don’t seem to have the squad to cope with a long season.

In defence, Matt Heath has been recruited by Adams for a nominal fee from Leicester but it is a case of an old pals act here, he is not that good.Richard Duffy has also joined on loan from Portsmouth. He will need to make an impact if Coventry are going to try to keep clean sheets.

In trying to keep these clean sheets, Clayton Ince has arrived from Crewe and he is a very competent keeper, but he does need a defence in front of him, something that he didn’t have at Crewe last season either. But the Trinidadian is a great acquisition and he will be heavily relied upon this season.

Again, a lack of depth will be the problem this season and as some teams find a new stadium strange and this could play a part in their lowly placing. All teams need a good home record and without this, the Sky Blues are set for another season of struggle.

Crewe Alexandra

Last Season: 21st

In: Luke RODGERs (Shrewsbury – nominal), Juan Ugarte (Wrexham), Pavol Suhov (AC Trencin), Micheal O’Connor, Eddie Johnson (Manchester United – loan), Matt Bailey (Stockport)

Out: Neil Sorvel (Shrewsbury), Clayton Ince (Coventry), Andy White, Colin Murdock

Manager: Dario Gradi

One to watch: Juan Ugarte

My Prediction: 18th

How will we do? – 6/6

Never has one team relied on one man so heavily last season. Crewe beat Leeds on New Years Day and then did not win another game until the final day, when they beat Coventry to stay in the division.

The hole left by Dean Ashtons’ departure became a void that no-one could fill. Crewe went into freefall and stayed up, but only on the last day. Dario Gradi has had the money, if not the time to spend it and he has spent the close season looking for that replacement. In true Gradi style, he has scoured the lower leagues and found 2 players who could fit that bill.

Juan Ugarte and Luke RODGERs both freely scored in Leagues One and Two last season, for Wrexham and Shrewsbury respectively.

The task of whether they can do it in the Championship is one that remains to be seen. Ugarte could be the steal of the season, but let us not forget that he did score 5 of the 16 goals in one game. None the less, he could be the surprise package of the division. As could Rogers, but the step up may prove too much initially.

It is hard to believe but Dario Gradi has been at Crewe longer than Wayne Rooney has been on this planet, yet he still manages to churn out the results and keep Crewe in the division, despite always having to sell his best players.

The squad is young and the experienced Neil Sorvel has now departed, so the responsibility for carrying the youngsters through will depend on defenders Adie Moses and Stephen Foster.

Crewe are not going to really do any damage to the top sides in the division but this is not to underestimate them. I see that we can easily beat them at home, but away it will not be an easy match and we will have to be on our mettle to take all 3 points. However Crewe are not vastly stronger now than they were last season but with other sides much weaker, they will survive.

If they can find some more young stars in their midst, they could go even higher than the 18th place I am predicting and the one thing you can rely on is Dario knows a good player when he sees one. I wonder if there are any left at Crewe, as all the best talent has long since departed.

Cardiff City

Last Season: 16th

In: Darren Purse (WBA £600,000), Jason Koumas (WBA – loan), Kevin Cooper (Wolves – undisc), Phil Mulryne (Norwich), Jeff Whitley (Sunderland), Neil Cox & Jermaine Darlington (Watford), Andrea Ferretti, Glenn Loovens (Feyenoord)

Out: Danny Gabbidon & James Collins (West Ham £3,200,000), Jobi McAnuff (Crystal Palace £750,000), Peter Thorne (Norwich), Lee Bullock (Hartlepool), Tony Vidmar, Danny Thomas, Jamie Rewbury, Micheal Parkins, Arron Lee-Barrett, Richard Ingram, Micheal Hartley, Sean Cronin, Gary Croft, Craig Attard.

Manager: Dave Jones

One to watch: Jason Koumas

My Prediction: 17th

How will we do? – 6/6

The revolving door at Ninian Park has turned quicker this close season than ever before. Dave Jones has had to shed a whole first team squad in order to ease their financial worries.

There are still quite a few players left from that squad who remain, but Jones had to rebuild a defence which was decimated by the departure of young Internationals Danny Gabbidon and James Collins, who brought in the majority of the money Cardiff earned over the Summer from their transfer dealings.

But whereas Millwall and Coventry have had very little money, Dave Jones has had the whole summer to chase targets and bring in players who he wanted, as long as the price is right. He has invested in players who could take Cardiff back towards the middle of the table and beyond, however for now he may have to settle for consolidation.

Jones has made the best of the blank canvas that he has had to work with. Darren Purse, Jeff Whitley, Jermaine Darlington, Neil Cox and Phil Mulryne have all played at this level and in the case of Purse, Whitley and Mulryne have all experienced teams that have gone up to the Premiership, so there is no shortage of winning attitude here. But the best signing of all this summer is Jason Koumas, who is my man to watch.

3 seasons ago, Jason Koumas could not put a foot wrong. Tranmere was his stage and he single handedly knocked out Southampton and Everton in the FA Cup, while his league performance brought the scouts to Prenton Park in their droves. Finally, he moved to West Brom and enjoyed his time there, seeing 2 promotions and 2 Premier League seasons worth of action.

Or so it should have been. With all the upheaval at the Hawthorns, Koumas saw little action last season and once Megson had gone, his chances became even more remote. Bryan Robson never gave him a look in and his career, was destined for the unfulfilled potential columns of the Football League annuals.

Dave Jones has offered him a lifeline and now he has 1 season to prove that he still has what it takes to compete at this level. There looks to be no way back at WBA for him so he is playing now for his future. He is still young as well, only 26 years of age.

Whether he can produce the form that brought him 10 goals in the last promotion campaign under Megson, 2 seasons ago, is questionable. What is not, is the undoubted talent that he possesses. However having a solid defence and a midfield maestro is one thing, not having a striker is another problem entirely.

Andy Campbell, a one time target for us when Steve Bruce was manager, leads the line but he is not a 20+ goals a season striker. In fact, I don’t think that he is a 10 goal a season striker. This is the main problem, they wont get a huge amount of goals.

All of Jones signings have been confined to the defence and midfield, with no strikers coming in who can make the difference between upper midtable and playoff hopes, to lower mid table and relegation worries.

I believe that the latter will be the case this season, once again. A season of consolidation under Jones is what I expect and as such, there will be no surprises at home for us. Away and Ninian Park is always a hard place to go, so we can get a point or possibly all 3 there, as we should be too strong for them.

But with Koumas, Cardiff should manage a good few wins and while they are not strong enough to mount a challenge for the top half of the table, they should comfortably remain in this division and with Dave Jones at the helm, the future, both short and long term, is a lot brighter now than it was 5 months ago.

Read part two tomorrow